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Reputation Professor Positive Complaints

Positive Economy Thinking

Reputation Professor Positive Complaints by Jim L Jackson.

Almost all news you hear or see today is about the downward economy. People are losing jobs, the price of gasoline is skyrocketing; and then there is the dreaded “R” word, Recession. As a leader, you are supposed to be upbeat and optimistic about the current economy. No matter where you go someone will ask you how business is because it can be one of the barometers for the economy. You try to explain that you have no crystal ball and you have no idea how the market is relative to your community, and you do this all with a happy face. After all, they may be a potential buyer. You then casually ask how their business is and they may say, reluctantly, they wanted to buy a widget today but the economy feels sluggish and, they’re just not sure about anything. Perhaps they will just save their money. They have a look on their face like they did you a favor by not purchasing a widget today! As they walk away they say thanks for your insight into the economy, you may have saved them from investing in a widget, of all things. No sale today, maybe after the elections, inauguration or the New Year.

In that very moment you wish that conversation had never come up and long for the good old days when the news was lighter - when people felt confident enough to want and purchase a new widget. How can you not talk about the economy? How can you keep a positive attitude when the economy stinks?

Sound familiar and painful? You know you need a positive spin to rev up your sales team who are wondering how to meet their goals in such a dismal economy. After all, they have had the same conversations with each other on your showroom floor. You may even have a little doubt in your own mind. If only you could just avoid the whole situation, maybe it will all be different tomorrow.

STOP IT NOW! Stop talking about the economy! Stop telling people that business is slow. Stop all the negative whining about the economy. JUST STOP IT! The more you dwell on your perceived observation of the economy the more you look for proof you are right. STOP IT NOW!

Below are four keys to creating a positive and prospering market around you.

1. Focus on what you want. If you focus on the potholes while you are driving, you’re going to hit the potholes. Instead, focus on a way around the potholes. When you’re talking to your staff or customers, indicate business is great and now is the perfect time to buy. Never talk about how tight money is for you (or anyone else, for that matter). Words trigger pictures that create emotions. How do you think people will feel if they hear the boss talking about how bad things are? You, as the leader or a team player, should talk about success and how great it is to work in a winning business.

2. Create a perception of value. Would you trade me a one-dollar bill for my twenty-dollar bill? It may be a good deal for you, but is it a good deal for me? It is if I perceive the value of a one-dollar bill is worth more than the twenty. Let’s say I’m dying of thirst and the bottle of water requires a one-dollar bill. Then yes, it is a great trade. Your job is to create value now that helps customers feel good about their purchase.

3. Create a positive environment. The only place you talk about the slow economy is with your competition. Let them believe that the market is bad if they so choose. However, you want people to feel good when they are in your house. So, take charge and a build strong belief in your people and yourself that you can prosper in any economy because you have the best team, the best product, and the best location.

4. Plant encouraging and positive ideas, discard negative ideas. Read positive material or listen to inspirational CD’s - in other words, work on putting positive thoughts in your head. And, if you must watch the news, the second it is over say to yourself (out loud is even better), I am thankful that business is great at my place.

You might argue that I don’t know how tough it is for you or what its like where you live. You’re right. But, I have traveled all over these great United States and I have seen hundreds of people just like you, and they are winning. Every day I see people who know that no matter what is going on in the marketplace, there are many ways to win in this economy. You have a choice each day as to how you will face that day. Your choice is either one of adversity or prosperity. People who start the day with a prosperity mindset automatically think of creative ways to outsmart the market. People with a prosperity mindset look for ways to inspire people to go where they did not think they could go. Leaders with a prosperity mindset see the obstacles as an opportunity to win when others might see only doom and gloom.

Posted in Reputation Professor Complaints Thinking. Tagged with .

By Reputation Professor Complaints
March 6, 2010

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Reputation Professor Complaints Issues

Current Issues with the Global Economy

Reputation Professor Complaints Issues By: dane

Though the housing bubble deflated about two years ago, its true effects are only now beginning to emerge. In late 2006, when the economy first began to show signs of weakness in the housing market, most economists predicted that a recession was very unlikely, and that any downturn in real estate prices would be localized and mild. In reality, a global downturn is now a real threat, with the final price of the credit crunch projected to exceed $1 trillion dollars.

Not only have falling house prices in the US spread to other markets abroad, they have contributed to massive losses in other areas of lending such as credit cards, and the financial industry, which is now reeling from the US government bailout of Bear Stearns. What does this mean for emerging economies like China and India? In the short term, volatility seems to be the order of the day, with India’s fledgling exchanges rocked by jittery investors. Until financial centers and investors can regain confidence, market conditions will be exaggerated. Early trading also plays a psychological role for investors, as news developments impact Asia before Wall Street opens.

The US and the UK both face difficult home pricing corrections which will continue to hamper growth. Most homeowners expect, if not to make a profit, not to sell their houses at a loss, which is a difficult pill to swallow. And if they can’t sell their homes for what they think they’re worth, then waiting it out contributes to prices falling, thus exacerbating the problem.

While government intervention has been exceptionally forthcoming in efforts to preserve confidence in financial markets, less attention has been given to homeowners who are being foreclosed on over the next year, which is only so low because of robust growth in Asia.

Another prospect which looms over every government is the specter of inflation, which threatens to overtake the slumping economy as the number one priority for the Federal Reserve and other central banks, who have had to take extreme action to prevent further liquidity losses. The Fed has sold off over $100 billion in auctions and lowered interest rates five times in an attempt to lower mortgage interest rates, but confidence will remain shaky until the full extent of investment bank’s sub-prime exposure is realized.

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By Reputation Professor Complaints
March 5, 2010

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Profit from Reputation Professor Complaints

You Can Profit From the Current Economy

Profit from Reputation Professor Complaints author Jay Wagner.

The current economy is in bad shape – at least that’s what all of the pundits tell us. The conventional wisdom in times like these is to put stop loss orders on everything, put everything you can into blue chips, or settle for the safe, low returns of Treasury securities.

I’m here to tell you that the conventional wisdom is foolish.

In the first place, the conventional wisdom is contradictory. You can’t have automatic trades to comply with stop loss orders going on constantly and maintain major holdings in blue chips. Even the blue chips – maybe especially the blue chips – are subject to market volatility. When the economy is bad, inflation becomes a major concern, and the market starts requiring a higher return on investment. At the same time, the bad economy drives sales downward, reducing corporate incomes and, by extension, return on stockholders’ investment. The result is market dissonance that exacerbates existing market volatility. The general trend is for prices to go down, and the easier a security is to trade the more precipitous its price decline tends to be. This is simply a function of supply and demand: more people want out than in, so supply exceeds demand and prices drop.

Supply and demand also accounts for what happens with bonds, notes, and commercial paper. In a difficult economy, fixed income securities are less appealing because of inflation concerns. Here again, people trying to get out of fixed income securities outnumber those trying to get in, so prices go down and both current yield and yield to maturity go up. At the same time, new debt issues of any kind are almost impossible to sell, and, with the rest of the credit market similarly tightened, companies are unable to borrow necessary cash at reasonable rates, forcing them to offer their debt placements at rather deep discounts. The bottom line is, they must raise cash to weather the economic storm, and they will pay handsomely to get it.

You’re seeing it today on every news channel: the prices of securities are declining virtually across the board. Your broker may be telling you to cover everything with stop loss orders and trade, trade, trade. That may be a case of your broker subscribing to the conventional foolishness, or it may be a case of your broker trying to protect his income: after all, commissions come from trades, and your broker lives on commissions. The question I have to ask is why would you want to sell now? It makes about as much sense as buying merchandise at Nieman Marcus to resell at Wal Mart. This is not, I repeat not, the time to sell. The economy is on an express elevator to the bargain basement, to be sure, but history tells us that when it comes to the stock market, what goes down must come up. Knowing that, this is the time to get in on the bargains. That “next Microsoft” that everyone is looking for might be trading for far less than its legitimate value right under your nose right now!

Growing up in Kansas, I was acquainted with a man who had amassed vast holdings of farm and ranch land. He was an eighth grade dropout, and I often wondered how he came to be so wealthy, so I finally asked. “Son,” he said, “Most of my land was bought back during the dust bowl, when farmers and ranchers were selling off their land or bankers were foreclosing and then trying to get what cash they could from the deal. I was just a farmhand back then, but I had a little money saved up, and when land dropped below twenty-five cents an acre I started buying. As the economy started to pick up, I used that land to borrow against and buy more land. By the time the drought was over, I owned almost ten sections [note: there are 640 acres in a section] and hadn’t spent $1,000 to get it.” At the time that we had that conversation (about 1972), his $1,000 investment made between 1930 and 1939 was worth over $3 million, an annualized return on investment of around 25%.

Do you have “a little money saved up” that could be used to pick up the bargains available in the current markets? My friend knew that the drought that caused the dust bowl wouldn’t last forever, and he made a fortune from other people’s panic. Investors are in a panic now, but if you’re smart their panic is your opportunity.

Investments to Avoid

In a struggling economy, investors tend to make the same mistakes over and over, and those mistakes take two forms: running for “safe harbor” and becoming extremely active traders in anything that is going up.

The safe harbor crowd always runs to one of two places, blue chip stocks and Treasury securities. As we have already discussed, blue chips are probably the roughest safe harbor you can go to, rather akin to anchoring in Galveston Bay during Hurricane Ike. Market volatility tends to have a more pronounced effect on blue chips: add the fact that blue chip companies like General Motors, General Electric, and AIG are all fighting for life right now and a run for the blue chips is borrowing trouble rather than escaping it.

Treasury issues are, without a doubt, safe. After all, if the Treasury defaults the money is meaningless anyway. The problem is, this is a “safe” harbor full of purchasing power pirates. The return on Treasury securities rarely keeps pace with inflation in an economic downturn, so while your safe harbor investment may be earning you a return in nominal dollar terms, in real dollar terms you’re losing purchasing power. It doesn’t do much good to earn 3% on your money if prices are going up an average of 6%.

Sadly, many investors who don’t run for safe harbor become speculators, moving money constantly into anything that is going up at the moment. Since most of the market is going down, this all too often drives them to the derivatives market, especially in today’s economy where oil futures have, at times, exceeded $140 per barrel. The problem is, if you’re short at $120 per barrel and the spot market on the settlement date is $140 per barrel, you’ll have to either lose money on an offsetting long position, sell your short at a loss, or have 1,000 barrels of crude setting around that you can part with. On the other hand, if you have a long position for $140 and the spot price is $120, you get to lose money going short or selling the long position at a loss, or you get to take delivery of 1,000 barrels of crude that you’ll lose $20,000 selling on the spot market if you can’t store it and wait.

Some investments, especially derivatives, will go into bubble mode early in an economic downturn, but don’t let that fool you into entering the bubble with them. As any kid who ever chewed bubble gum or blew soap bubbles can tell you, bubbles burst. If your money is in the bubble when it bursts, you can wave goodbye to it as it is scattered on the winds of economic caprice.

Investments to Make

Some companies and industries have proven themselves to be amazingly resilient. Like everything else, their securities are or soon will be selling at bargain basement prices, and if they appear to be struggling the discounts may be extra deep. Do your homework, make sure that they are positioned to bounce back, but if they are, buy while the price is low.

The current debacle started with a meltdown in the sub-prime mortgage market. The result is a large number of foreclosures, with lenders ending up holding real estate when they need cash. As a result, real estate prices are falling, so if you can, this is a good time to buy real estate or invest in companies that are investing in real estate. The prices will go back up, just as they did for my friend who invested in farm and ranch land during the dust bowl.

Many brokers and analysts have an innate fear of high yield (so called “junk”) bonds. Admittedly, some high yields have gone under and become no yields, but as a rule the returns have been in line with the risks, and sometimes a little higher. During an economic downturn, there tend to be two types of high yield bonds on the market: those with something behind them and those with nothing behind them. The former are usually issued by companies that want the capital to invest while the market is down, generally in either income real estate or leveraged buyouts. These tend to be pretty good bets for a sizeable profit in a relatively short period of time, and they offer your investment some diversification while providing at least partial collateral from the assets they invest your money into. The latter are usually issued by companies that are cash strapped and have credit problems, and they’re offering them to raise working capital: as a rule, they’re a bad investment and far more likely to default than the secured high yields.

The best bargains, however, may be in small cap (so called “penny”) stocks, initial public offerings (IPOs), and various kinds of notes, especially those backed with some kind of collateral. Some of these securities (especially the notes) can have some pretty creative terms, but if you understand the terms they can be a good, and often high yield, investment.

However, He Said . . .

While you’re doing all of this bargain basement buying, it doesn’t hurt to put a few safeguards into your portfolio. These can take several forms, as you’ll see.

After spending the first part of this article giving you all of the reasons to avoid the rush to blue chips and Treasury securities, I now need to backtrack just a bit. I’m not going into the famous politician’s gambit that “I was against it before I was for it.” I’m still adamantly opposed to loading your portfolio with volatile blue chips and low yield Treasuries, but having a portion of your portfolio in these securities isn’t a bad thing. The blue chips may recover a little more quickly than the market at large, and the Treasury issues will at least provide a good final position in the event of a major, long-term depression.

There are, of course, other ways to protect your portfolio. As you know, I’m against riding bubbles, especially in the derivatives markets. However, derivatives can be used to hedge your positions. Worried that a rise in interest rates will devalue that investment in mortgage notes? Just hedge the position with Treasury note or Treasury bond futures. For example, one long 10 year Treasury note contract can effectively insure one $100,000 10 year mortgage against excessive value loss due to rising interest rates. This doesn’t tie the two inextricably together, but as 10 years Treasury note rates rise toward the level of the long position, its value increases to cover the value lost by the mortgage note.

Another thing that can help your portfolio is investment grade bonds, especially if they can be converted to common stock. The conversion capability tends to buoy the price some, and the bond income can provide money to cover short-term losses in other areas or help your income weather the economic storm.

Posted in Reputation Professor Complaints Profit. Tagged with .

By Reputation Professor Complaints
March 5, 2010

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